Download
关闭
Home > Investment Academy > Details

Week 49 Gold Market Recap: Gold Rally Accelerates as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Ignite Year-End Momentum

2025-12-05 15:28:55 | 浏览 127

点赞 0


Gold Surges Past $4,250 Barrier as FOMC Dot Plot Signals Three 2026 Rate Cuts

International gold prices mounted a powerful advance this week, with spot gold peaking at $4,258 per ounce for a weekly gain of approximately 2.5%, decisively breaching the pivotal $4,250 resistance threshold. The Federal Reserves FOMC meeting held rates steady, yet the updated dot plot projected three rate cuts in 2026, reinforced by softer-than-expected November Non-Farm Payrolls (198,000 jobs added), elevating December cut probabilities to 88% and offsetting dollar strength headwinds. Year-to-date appreciation nears 62%, underpinned by record quarterly central bank purchases and ETF inflows; Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 volume expanded 18% week-on-week, underscoring strong domestic institutional accumulation.

Price Action Analysis

Spot gold probed $4,200 support early before rallying sharply, catapulting to a weekly high of $4,258 post-FOMC on Wednesday and closing in the $4,242-$4,250 band. December COMEX gold futures settled at $4,248.30 per ounce. Mid-week U.S. November Non-Farm Payrolls added 198,000 positions (consensus: 235,000), unemployment climbed to 4.3%, revised ADP reflected just 125,000 additions, and ISM Services PMI eased to 51.2, fueling a 1.8% intraday surge. Technically, the $4,200-$4,250 zone establishes firm support, MACD golden cross validates bullish momentum, with $4,180 as secondary floor and $4,310 as the next upside objective. Shanghai gold benchmark averaged RMB 540/g, retail bars holding a RMB 20/g premium.

Federal Reserve Policy Trajectory Crystallizes

The December 9-10 FOMC held the federal funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, but elevated 2026 cut forecasts to three (previously two), with Chair Powell highlighting labor market moderation and inflation nearing 2%, signaling markets the dawn of "data-contingent easing." CME FedWatch Tool pegs January cut odds at 65%. New York Fed President Williams and Governor Waller post-meeting reaffirmed data-driven guidance, as the Beige Book revealed deepening consumption polarization, mid/low-tier spending strains, and escalating manufacturing costs—amplifying golds non-yielding allure in a low-rate paradigm. Subdued Non-Farm figures alongside JOLTS openings dropping to 8.1 million cement soft-landing conviction, prompting institutions to raise year-end targets to $4,400.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Risk Backstops

U.S. November CPI on Wednesday aligned with core m/m at 0.2% (in-line) and y/y at 2.7% (marginally above), services inflation lingering yet goods deflation aiding Feds measured easing course. Central bank accumulation persists unabated, China adding 28 tonnes and India 22 tonnes in November for a yearly 1,320-tonne total; protracted Middle East strife and anticipated Trump tariffs spur U.S./European haven demand into SPDR Gold Shares, holdings swelling 45 tonnes weekly. DXY rallied 0.8% to 105.2, countered by anchored inflation views and year-end pension rebalancing, sustaining golds bullish bias toward $4,280 near-term resistance.

Gold Targets $4,300 Amid Fed Assimilation and Global Data Flows

Next week, markets assimilate FOMC signals while scrutinizing inflation prints and Chinese policy readouts. U.S. PPI on December 10 forecasts 0.1% m/m and core 2.4% y/y, illuminating price pressures. Chinas November trade/reserves on December 11 gauge export durability and PBoC gold tempo, vital for precious metals dynamics. Eurozone CPI final (exp. 2.3%) and UK sa GDP (exp. 0.1%) on December 12 delineate transatlantic policy divergence, with U-Mich sentiment final on December 13 previewing consumption trajectories. Chartwise, gold anchors above its 25-day MA near $4,250, eyeing $4,280 breakout; lingering Non-Farm softness could thrust toward $4,300 psychologically, whereas DXY over 106 or equity corrections risks $4,200 test—this period decisive for directional conviction.

Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence

As one of the elite members of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No. 084) and a core member of the Bullion Group, Upway Global was recently awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter" certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.

Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 1.2 million active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 600 million, Upway Global continues to foster a trading ecosystem characterised by transparency, security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025 exceeded USD 597 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.