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Week 1 Gold Market Recap: Golden New Year: Disinflation, a Softer Dollar, and Structural Inflows Sustain Strength

2026-01-12 14:08:09 | 浏览 15173

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High-Level Consolidation: Pullbacks Met with Buying, Range-Bound Strength

Gold prices held firm at elevated levels throughout the first week of 2026, extending the bullish momentum from late 2025. Between January 5 and January 9, spot gold advanced steadily from approximately $4,449/oz to $4,509/oz, repeatedly testing and rebounding from the mid-$4,450 zone—a classic consolidation pattern. Market headlines reinforced this trend: on January 6, heightened geopolitical tensions drove intraday gains of roughly 0.8%, pushing prices close to December’s record range. By January 8, closing levels were broadly observed in the $4,465–$4,485/oz band, underscoring resilience amid profit-taking and renewed buying interest.

Macro and Policy: Rate-Cut Expectations and Easing Inflation

Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data continued to underpin gold’s structural strength. December meeting minutes highlighted caution on inflation and a measured approach to rate cuts—eschewing aggressive easing—but the third consecutive 25bp cut at year-end confirmed a shift toward neutral-to-accommodative policy. This dynamic reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, favoring gold. Preliminary CPI data for December showed headline inflation at 2.7% YoY and core at 2.6%, near multi-year lows, compressing real yields and weakening the dollar. The DXY index hovered near 98, a critical technical support; a sustained break could open a path toward 94–92, amplifying gold’s relative appeal.

ETF and Central Bank Flows: Structural Support Reinforced

Long-term capital flows continued to provide a solid floor for gold prices. World Gold Council data confirmed record annual ETF inflows in 2025, totaling approximately $89 billion, with holdings reaching 4,025 tonnes and AUM at $559 billion. December marked the seventh consecutive month of net inflows, reinforcing price stability. On the official side, central banks maintained robust buying patterns: net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years, and 95% of surveyed institutions expect further reserve accumulation over the next 12 months. Q3 2025 alone saw net buying of 220 tonnes, up 28% quarter-on-quarter, signaling persistent strategic demand even at elevated price levels.

Geopolitical Risk: Safe-Haven Demand Resurfaces

Geopolitical developments reasserted their influence on market sentiment. Renewed tensions in Venezuela and the Middle East triggered a fresh wave of safe-haven flows, lifting gold and silver in tandem. Historical precedent suggests such shocks deliver pronounced short-term upside, while medium-term impact hinges on whether risks escalate or dissipate. Absent a broader contagion, price action is likely to revert to ranges dictated by macro drivers—rates, dollar strength, and liquidity conditions.

Structural Demand in China: Investment Substitutes Jewelry

China’s domestic market exhibited notable divergence. Data from the China Gold Association indicated a sharp decline in jewelry consumption during the first three quarters of 2025, while investment demand for bars and coins surged by roughly 25% YoY. This substitution effect aligns with global trends favoring investment-driven flows. Concurrently, WGC reports show Chinese gold ETFs maintaining near-record holdings despite intermittent volatility, reinforcing regional liquidity support.

Technical Landscape and Forward Outlook: Data and Dollar in Focus

Key technical levels remain pivotal for short-term positioning. Resistance is clustered around $4,530–$4,550, while support zones lie at $4,450, $4,400, and $4,350. Looking ahead, the January 13 release of December CPI will be a critical macro catalyst; continued disinflation coupled with labor softness would strengthen rate-cut expectations and bolster gold’s appeal. Conversely, a rebound in DXY above 100 and rising real yields could temporarily cap upside momentum. Geopolitical flashpoints and sustained ETF inflows will further shape risk-adjusted strategies.

Strategy and Risk Management: Buy on Dips, Monitor Dollar Dynamics

Maintain a constructive bias toward gold within a “high-level consolidation” framework. Favor incremental long positions on pullbacks toward $4,450–$4,400, provided macro and flow conditions remain supportive. Set initial stop-loss thresholds near $4,350. Should the dollar index reclaim 100 alongside firmer real yields, reduce exposure and await improved entry points. For diversification, silver offers higher beta but warrants strict position sizing and disciplined risk controls.

Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence

As one of the elite members of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No. 084) and a core member of the Bullion Group, Upwaycertification, cently awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter" certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.

Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 2.1 million active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 700 million, Upway Global continues to foster a trading ecosystem characterised by transparency, security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025 exceeded USD 629 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.