2026-01-23 14:31:36
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Macro Environment and Gold Market Positioning
Entering late January 2026, global gold prices continue to trade within a highlevel range. Supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, and sustained centralbank gold accumulation, prices once surged to a historical high of USD 4,960/oz earlier in the month, establishing a firm bullish foundation. After the breakout, gold entered a phase of technical consolidation, yet its overall trading range remains significantly elevated—indicating that global risk appetite continues to be restrained under persistent macro uncertainty.
Gold Prices: High?Level Consolidation with Risk Premium Intact
This week, gold maintained its highrange consolidation, extending the strong momentum observed at the start of the year. After reaching the record high of USD 4,960/oz in midJanuary, shortterm trading shifted into a technical rebalancing phase, though the center of gravity continued rising. Buyers at high levels were driven mainly by two forces: rising geopolitical uncertainty fueling safe?haven demand, and institutional short?covering triggered near key technical levels, which amplified the upside momentum. Following the breakout, several investment banks raised their gold price targets for the year; if macro and geopolitical risks persist, the market could even test the USD 5,000/oz region.
Silver: Supply Disruptions and Industrial Demand Fuel a Synchronized Surge
Silver followed gold’s strong trend, once advancing to USD 99/oz. China’s implementation of a two?year export licensing requirement significantly tightened global supply, while industrial demand—especially in the renewable?energy sector—continued to strengthen. The resulting supply?demand imbalance has increased price elasticity. Meanwhile, as the gold?silver ratio pulled back from historical highs, capital flows rotated into silver for catch?up trades, reinforcing a broader “synchronized rally” across the precious?metals complex.
Drivers: Geopolitics + Central?Bank Buying + Policy Uncertainty
The
recent moves in gold and silver can be largely attributed to three main
drivers:
(1) Geopolitical risk premium expansion — Heightened tensions in the Middle
East and Latin America, combined with political noise surrounding the
independence of U.S. monetary authorities, weakened global risk appetite and
boosted safe?haven allocations.
(2) Structural central?bank gold accumulation — Global central banks have been
net buyers for three consecutive years. In 2025, signs of “shadow buying,”
particularly from certain Asian economies, strengthened the price floor and
reinforced long?term demand support.
(3) Uncertain Federal Reserve policy path — After three rate cuts in 2025, the
December minutes revealed a widening divide within the FOMC. As a result,
markets became more cautious about the 2026 policy trajectory. The U.S. dollar
and Treasury yields turned increasingly data?sensitive, and while these factors
typically weigh on gold, their negative impact has been offset by elevated risk
premiums and continued allocation demand.
Next Week’s Key Focus
Next
week’s market attention will center on crucial economic events in the United
States and China. The most anticipated event is the FOMC interest?rate decision,
scheduled for January 27–28, with the policy announcement set for 14:00 ET on
January 28, followed by the Chair’s press conference. Markets widely expect the
Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, making the tone of the policy
statement and press briefing essential indicators for gold and silver price
direction.
Meanwhile, on January 29, the U.S. will release personal income and spending
data, including the closely watched PCE inflation index, alongside the advance
estimate of Q4 2025 GDP. These releases will significantly shape market
expectations for inflation and the timing of future rate cuts—factors to which
precious metals are highly sensitive.
On the Chinese front, the official Manufacturing PMI will be announced on January
31. As a key end?of?month indicator, its expansion or contraction will reflect
China’s industrial activity outlook. The results may influence industrial?metals
sentiment and, through demand?expectation channels, indirectly affect overall
market sentiment toward silver and the broader precious?metals space.
Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence
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