2026-01-30 14:14:56
|
30476
0
Gold Prices Accelerate in a “Stair-Step” Rally, Setting New Records
Spot gold extended its strong upward trajectory this week, displaying clear signs of acceleration. According to the supplemental background data, gold first broke above USD 4,690/oz on January 20 and, within days, successively pierced the USD 4,800 / 5,000 / 5,100 thresholds, before climbing further to a historic high of USD 5,595/oz on January 30. Market sentiment has shifted from “trend-following” to “acceleration mode.” Meanwhile, external public sources also show gold trading continuously near the USD 5,5xx/oz region in late January, reflecting robust risk premiums and rising position congestion across the market (intraday highs vary slightly across data providers but remain directionally consistent).
From a trading perspective, futures and derivatives participation have clearly intensified. CME data indicate that both trading volume and open interest in gold futures remained elevated through late January, implying persistent inflows into the derivatives market and signaling that volatility could expand further due to position adjustments at high levels.
Silver Follows Gold Higher: Breaks Above USD 121/oz with Rising Elasticity and Volatility
Silver’s performance this week showed even greater elasticity under the coordinated rally across precious metals. Prices temporarily surpassed USD 121/oz, before encountering significant resistance around the USD 121.8–122 zone and subsequently retracing—reflecting profit-taking pressure and intensified positioning battles at elevated levels. Public market reports likewise indicate silver reaching around USD 120.45/oz, highlighting its heightened sensitivity to risk sentiment and leveraged flows during acceleration phases. With both financial and industrial attributes, silver tends to exhibit a “steeper ascent and faster pullback” structure, and short-term monitoring of position congestion and technical overbought conditions remains crucial.
Drivers: Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Geopolitical Risks Intensify, and a Weaker Dollar Combines with Technical Buying
The precious metals surge this week can be attributed to the concurrent influence of three major forces. First, global rate cut expectations have risen significantly. Markets widely expect a more accommodative liquidity environment this year, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non interest bearing assets like gold. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the future path of interest rates continues to escalate, thereby reinforcing gold’s value as a hedge. Many institutional analyses identify shifting rate expectations as a key catalyst behind this round of gold’s ascent.
Second, geopolitical conflict and macro uncertainty have increased notably. Public information indicates heightened tensions in the Middle East, persistent conflict in Eastern Europe, and continued U.S. policy uncertainty—all contributing to weakened global risk appetite in late January. This has channeled safe?haven flows decisively into precious metals, enabling gold to break multiple key levels in quick succession and enter a momentum?driven ascent.
Third, a weakening U.S. dollar, combined with strong trend?following inflows, has amplified technical buying. Multiple reports point out that when gold breaks major psychological levels during periods of USD softness and elevated risk premiums, it tends to attract CTA-driven follow?through buying, short covering, and systematic rebalancing. This dynamic often creates the “stair?step rally” pattern witnessed this week, contributing to the acceleration phase.
Trading Structure, Asset Allocation and Policy Sensitivity Moving in Parallel
From a trading?structure perspective, the sharp rise in gold has been accompanied by synchronized strength across silver and the broader precious metals complex. Silver, given its higher elasticity, exhibited an even more pronounced acceleration after breaking above USD 105/oz, lifting overall sector sentiment. Meanwhile, elevated gold futures open interest and trading volumes indicate intensified twoway positioning. Under a leveraged trading structure, any margindriven liquidation or stoploss trigger could swiftly shift price action from a “oneway trend” to a “sharp intraday whipsaw,” underscoring the importance of monitoring short term overcrowding and potential technical corrections.
From an asset allocation standpoint, the extraordinary rally in precious metals is beginning to generate a rotation effect away from equities—particularly from high valuation, high volatility technology and growth sectors. In an environment marked by elevated macro uncertainty, the hedging value of gold has drawn risk capital away from more cyclical and speculative assets. At the same time, gold’s strong performance has prompted investors to reassess the strategic role of commodities—especially as inflation expectations fluctuate and tail risks rise—driving a renewed emphasis on commodities within multiasset portfolios.
On the policy side, the current rally remains highly sensitive to the interplay between rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk premiums. Should the Federal Reserve’s easing pace fall short of market expectations, or if geopolitical tensions ease materially, gold could face notable technical pullbacks. Moreover, with gold now trading firmly above USD 5,200/oz, market attention is increasingly focused on the ability of new inflows to absorb elevated prices and the risk of position congestion. Many institutions describe the current phase as one where momentum remains strong but downside volatility risk has risen sharply, warranting heightened vigilance and disciplined position management.
Next Week’s Outlook: Data Driven Repricing May Shift Precious Metals from “Trend Mode” to “High Volatility Mode”
Entering the first full trading week of February (February 2–6), global markets will transition from a “policy expectation-driven” regime into a “data validation-driven” pricing framework. For precious metals—already at elevated levels following rapid gains and crowded positioning—any macro data surprise may prompt markets to reprice the U.S. dollar and real interest rate expectations, potentially amplifying precious metals volatility. Importantly, the macro calendar for early February carries strong directional implications and may significantly influence short term risk appetite and cross asset allocations.
In the U.S., next week’s primary focus lies in two key data channels: growth and employment. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on February 2—a leading indicator of U.S. business cycles and demand conditions—will directly shape market views on economic resilience and the duration of higher interest rates. A stronger than expected PMI could lift Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar, exerting downward pressure on precious metals; a weaker reading would likely revive easing expectations and support gold and silver. More critically, the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on February 6 will be the decisive volatility driver for the week. Should employment and wage data come in hotter than expected, markets may reprice real yields higher, strengthening the USD and potentially prompting profit taking in gold and silver. Conversely, weaker labor data could accelerate expectations for earlier or deeper rate cuts, supporting precious metals and potentially encouraging another attempt at the highs.
On the China side, market attention will focus on how economic sentiment and industrial demand expectations propagate through commodity markets. With the NBS Manufacturing PMI released on January 31, its impact on metals markets typically unfolds over the subsequent 1–2 trading days. Via the channel of “industrial demand expectations → silver sentiment → precious metals sector linkage,” it may exert a greater marginal influence on silver volatility. In early week Asian trading sessions and across global cross market interactions, silver may thus continue to exhibit higher elasticity and intraday swings relative to gold.
Overall, next week’s precious metal trading narrative will revolve around the repricing of the U.S. dollar and real yields, driven primarily by the ISM and NFP data combination. After significant gains in January, market reactions to any macro surprise are likely to be amplified. From a strategy perspective, risk control and position management should take priority—regardless of directional views, one must account for the high sensitivity of elevated markets to unexpected volatility, and avoid being caught by asymmetric swings around key data releases.
Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence
As one of the elite members of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No. 084) and a core member of the Bullion Group, Upway Global was awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter" certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.
Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 2.1 million active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 700 million, Upway Global continues to foster a trading ecosystem characterised by transparency, security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025 exceeded USD 629 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.
简体中文
繁體中文
Gold/Silver CFDs
Accounts
Wallet
Promotions
Trading Tools
News Updates
Economic Calendar
Investment Academy
Beginner’s Guide
Anti-Fraud Guide
FAQs
Upway APP
Upway Desktop
CTOTrader
Upway HD
MetaTrader 4
MetaTrader 5
About Upway
Company News
Affiliate Program
Contact Us
