2026-02-13 10:13:28
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Pre-Holiday Overview: From Extreme Swings to High-Level Ranging
As the Lunar New Year approaches, gold and silver are trading in broad ranges near historically elevated levels, following a period of sharp rallies and abrupt corrections earlier in the year. Strong US labour data and a reassessment of Fed easing prospects have pulled prices back from peaks above 5,100 dollars for gold and 86 dollars for silver, yet both metals still show substantial gains over the past 12 months.
Recent research characterises the current phase as an intersection of three forces: macro repricing (rates and the dollar), trading-structure adjustments (margin policies and leveraged positioning) and seasonal Lunar New Year demand. In this environment, medium-term direction remains tied to Fed policy and real yields, while short-term price action is shaped by liquidity conditions and holiday-related flows.
Price Dynamics: From “Crash and Spike” to “Range and Consolidation”
Silver, which suffered a “historic crash” at the end of January with intraday losses nearing 50%, has since stabilised around the 80–82-dollar zone, shifting from one-way capitulation to a volatile consolidation pattern. Gold has retreated from its recent highs but continues to oscillate around the 5,000-dollar level, suggesting that while the latest surge has been checked, the broader bullish structure has not been decisively reversed.
Analysts note that markets appear to have transitioned from a trend-dominated regime to a more range-bound one: instead of extended moves in a single direction, gold and silver now tend to react sharply to individual data points or headlines and then partially retrace within the same session. This behaviour is consistent with pre-holiday conditions, where liquidity generally thins and risk-taking appetite becomes more measured.
Seasonal Patterns: Balancing Festive Demand and Caution
Lunar New Year traditionally coincides with a pick-up in physical gold demand across parts of Asia, driven by jewellery, investment bars and gifting. This year, however, that seasonal pattern is unfolding against the backdrop of record-high prices and elevated volatility, leading to more nuanced demand behaviour:
Overall, festive physical demand still provides a degree of support on corrections but is unlikely to dominate price direction on its own; instead, it acts as a partial buffer against deeper sell-offs while macro and positioning factors continue to drive the broader narrative.
Offshore Price Discovery During the Holiday Window
With mainland Chinese markets closed for an extended holiday, price discovery for gold and silver with respect to China-related demand will largely shift to offshore venues—COMEX futures, London spot, CNH-denominated products and related derivatives. Commentators point to several implications:
In this sense, gold and silver trading around Lunar New Year is simultaneously driven by global macro factors and the structural peculiarities of the holiday calendar.
Key Angles to Monitor Around Lunar New Year
Looking ahead to the holiday period and the immediate aftermath, several dimensions warrant close attention in the gold and silver space:
Taken together, the gold and silver markets around Lunar New Year in 2026 are less about simple directional calls and more about understanding how seasonal demand, macro repricing and market-structure dynamics interact over a compressed period of time.
Upway Global: Driving New Patterns in Gold Investment
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