2026-04-22 13:41:48
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Over the past year, gold and silver have gone through a pronounced “surge and shakeout” cycle. The BIS’s March 2026 Quarterly Review describes this episode as a precious-metals rush and retracement driven not only by macro forces, but by the way retail flows and pooled investment products interacted. As these structural shifts take hold, the behaviour of gold and silver has started to look increasingly equity-like.
1. What the BIS highlights about the recent boom-bust
The BIS points to several defining features of the 2025–early-2026 move:
Prices and volatility: Silver nearly doubled in 2025, rose by more than 50% again into early 2026, and then experienced a single-day drop of about 30%, at times trading more like a high-volatility theme than a traditional defensive asset.
Gold gained around 60% in 2025 and set new all-time highs in early 2026 before retracing roughly 9%, with overall volatility noticeably higher than in many previous years.
Flows and structure: Retail investors, primarily via gold and silver funds and ETPs, increased their holdings from roughly USD 20 billion to about USD 60 billion, becoming key marginal buyers; at the same time, many institutional investors used the strength to scale back or hedge positions, effectively taking the other side at higher levels.
In the BIS’s assessment, this mix of retail-driven flows and fund vehicles has made precious-metals trading more akin to equity-style thematic activity than in past cycles.
2. Volatility: joining the ranks of higher-beta assets
Over the full cycle, the shift in volatility is clear: Research from asset managers notes that gold and silver price volatility rose sharply into early 2026 and, while it has since eased, it remains above average levels seen over the last decade.
In day-to-day terms: Moves of 2–3% in gold have become more common; silver has seen 5–10% swings on individual days, at times matching or exceeding the fluctuations of major equity indices.
From a volatility perspective, gold and silver have thus moved away from the stereotype of “low-beta hedges” toward the segment of higher-volatility assets.
3. Turnover and participants: fund- and retail-driven flows
BIS
findings and market commentary also highlight important changes in how trading
is intermediated:
Pooled vehicles as key access points: Gold and silver-linked funds have
seen substantial growth, with turnover in some periods comparable to that of
widely traded equity products. This concentrates a
broad base of investor demand into a relatively small number of instruments,
increasing the sensitivity of prices to creations, redemptions and secondary-market activity.
Rising retail participation: The BIS notes that retail investors using funds and online platforms were a major source of net buying in the upswing, while institutions more often chose to reduce risk into strength. With shorter average holding periods and a stronger focus on headlines and sentiment, these flows tend to respond quickly to macro data, policy communication and geopolitical developments.
The result is a trading pattern that increasingly resembles equity markets: higher turnover, shorter holding horizons, and a tighter link between price action and shifts in risk appetite.
4. Structural mechanisms: rules-based adjustments on volatile days
The BIS also points to the role of product rules and risk-management frameworks in shaping extreme moves: Some investment products that target a specific exposure adjust their holdings on a routine basis in response to price changes. On particularly volatile days, these rules can lead to additional trading in the prevailing direction, reinforcing short-term trends.
In derivative markets, when prices reverse sharply and volatility increases, higher risk-control requirements (such as margin levels) can lead some positions to be reduced automatically if thresholds are breached, adding to the intensity of intraday moves.
When such rules-based adjustments represent a meaningful share of overall activity, the shape of price moves on extreme days can start to resemble that of high-volatility equities: sharp accelerations followed by equally sharp reversals.
5. Framing the “equity-like” shift
At the fundamental level, gold and silver have not changed identity: Gold remains closely linked to real interest rates, policy expectations, currency dynamics and central-bank reserve behaviour; silver still combines precious-metal characteristics with stronger industrial and cyclical exposure, making it more sensitive to growth and risk sentiment.
At the market-structure and trading-behaviour level, however: Higher retail participation, the central role of pooled products, and more prominent rules-based adjustments have made precious-metals price action more equity-like—with higher volatility, faster reactions to macro news, and a greater role for flows.
This shift does not dictate where prices must go next. It does suggest that: The path of prices—up or down—is likely to be less linear than in earlier periods; understanding gold and silver in 2026 and beyond increasingly requires looking at both macro narratives and market microstructure, rather than only at one side of the equation.
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Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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