Download
关闭
Home > Investment Academy > Details

Gold and Silver Face Deep Correction After Five-Quarter Winning Streak: How to Position for the Post-Rally Outlook?

2026-06-30 11:31:35 | 浏览 1

点赞 0

https://comdatacrm.oss-cn-hongkong.aliyuncs.com/upload/crm_pic/2026/06/30/20260630113109A006.png


Following an impressive five-quarter winning streak, gold and silver experienced a pronounced cooling-off period at the close of the second quarter. This sharp pullback has triggered widespread market debate: does this signal the end of the secular bull market, or is it merely a healthy consolidation within a long-term uptrend? Jinrong China provides an in-depth analysis of the latest market dynamics and macroeconomic drivers.

I. Sharp Retracement: A Tactical Shakeout in Precious Metals

Precious metals endured their steepest quarterly losses in recent years, abruptly halting their consecutive quarterly gains:

  • Gold Performance: Shed nearly 12% this quarter, marking its sharpest quarterly decline since December 2016. The metal has retraced approximately 24% from its all-time high of $5,417/oz.
  • Silver Performance: Plunged 17.6%, recording its most severe quarterly drop since June 2022. Compared to its January peak of $117/oz, silver has corrected by nearly 47%.

II. Confluence of Macro Headwinds: What Drove the Sell-Off?

The accelerated downward momentum in the precious metals complex was driven by a multi-faceted convergence of macroeconomic headwinds:

  1. Prolonged Fed Tightening Cycle (The Primary Driver): Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path have shifted significantly. Driven by sticky inflation fueled by rebounding crude oil prices, markets now price in a "higher-for-longer" restrictive stance, with some participants even factoring in potential rate hikes later this year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reaffirmed the central bank’s steadfast commitment to combating inflation, and the Fed subsequently revised its 2026 inflation projections upward. Elevated interest rates boost the appeal of yield-bearing assets like fixed income, diverting capital away from non-yielding bullion.
  2. Dollar Strength Suppressing Demand: Backed by the prolonged high-interest-rate outlook, the US Dollar Index maintained its upward momentum. As gold and silver are globally benchmarked in greenbacks, a stronger dollar directly inflates acquisition costs for non-USD buyers, thereby dampening global physical investment and consumer demand.
  3. De-escalation of Geopolitical Tensions: The safe-haven premium generated by the US-Iran standoff has begun to unwind. As geopolitical risks abated, safe-haven capital rotated out of defensive assets and back into equities and other risk assets.
  4. Crowded Longs and Technical Liquidation: As precious metals hovered near historic highs, long positions became excessively crowded. Once prices breached key technical support levels, it triggered a domino effect of cascading stop-loss orders, exacerbating short-term downside momentum.
  • Why Did Silver Underperform Gold? Silver’s underperformance relative to gold stems from its dual characteristics as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Consequently, silver exhibits higher beta and heightened volatility, leaving it more exposed to fluctuations in global manufacturing activity amid a restrictive credit environment.

III. Institutional Foundations: Central Bank Accumulation Remains Resilient

While ETF investors quickly pared down exposure in May and June following a strong accumulation phase in April, the core structural thesis supporting gold’s long-term bull market remains intact:

  • Robust Official Sector Inflows: Data indicates that global central banks recorded a net purchase of 244 tonnes in Q1, marking one of the strongest annual openings in recent years.
  • Sustained Long-Term Demand: A recent survey by the World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that 89% of reserve managers anticipate global official gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months. This structural demand—underpinned by de-dollarization and reserve diversification—provides a solid floor for the asset.

IV. Wall Street Consensus: Near-Term Volatility, Unbroken Long-Term Bull Case

Despite the deep correction, major Wall Street institutions have merely trimmed or deferred their near-term price targets; none have turned structurally bearish.

  • Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley: View the current sell-off as a healthy technical correction within a broader secular uptrend, expecting near-term consolidation without breaking the underlying macro logic.
  • Bank of America (BofA): Reaffirmed its long-term target of $6,000/oz, noting that the asset will simply require a more extended timeline to achieve this milestone.
  • BMO Capital Markets: Marginally adjusted its full-year average forecast but maintains that gold is on track to reach $5,000/oz by the first quarter of next year.

Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence

As one of the elite members of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No. 084) and a core member of the Bullion Group,  Upway Global was awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter" certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.

Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 2.1 million active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 700 million, Upway Global continues to foster a trading ecosystem characterised by transparency, security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025 til now exceeded USD 842 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.


Risk Disclosure

This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.