2026-10-23 10:59:06
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Precious metals remained range-bound this week, with gold oscillating between $4,100 and $4,150 and silver consolidating near $57-$58. Rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions reignited inflation concerns, keeping expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike elevated and limiting the upside for gold and silver.
As of October 21, spot gold was trading around $4,134 per ounce, while silver was near $57.44. Markets were pricing approximately an 88% probability of a December rate hike, while an October hold remained the prevailing expectation.
Macro: Rising Oil Keeps Inflation Expectations Elevated
Markets continued to digest the impact of the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Although an October hold remains the base case, the market's pricing for a December hike remains near 88%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and the future policy path.
Oil prices rose this week, with renewed Middle East tensions raising concerns about energy supply and inflation. Higher crude prices pushed inflation expectations higher and prompted markets to reassess whether the Fed may need to tighten further.
Fed officials' commentary remained divided. Some officials emphasized that inflation is still too high and supported further tightening, while others focused more on labor-market cooling risks and favored patience. Overall, uncertainty within the Fed regarding the future policy path remains elevated.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained at elevated levels this week, though it eased at times, continuing to place pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Gold: Range-Bound Between $4,100 and $4,150
Gold oscillated between $4,100 and $4,150 this week without forming a clear direction. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations limited the upside, but safe-haven demand and dip-buying interest provided some support near the lows.
Gold needs to reclaim $4,200 before attempting a recovery toward $4,250-$4,300. If oil prices continue to rise or inflation expectations increase, gold could retest $4,100. A sustained break below that area could expose the market to $4,000-$4,050.
The recent range-bound trading suggests that while expectations for a December hike remain high, they have not yet fully dominated market sentiment. Future performance will depend on real yields, the dollar and whether the Fed hikes rates again in December.
Silver: Consolidating Near $57-$58, More Volatile Than Gold
Silver consolidated in the $57-$58 range this week, continuing to underperform gold. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations pressured silver's industrial-demand outlook, but dip-buying interest provided some support.
If silver can reclaim $58, prices may recover toward $59-$61. A sustained break below $57 would increase the risk of a decline toward $55-$56.
The gold-silver ratio remains elevated, showing that investors currently prefer gold's safe-haven characteristics while remaining cautious about silver's industrial-demand and cyclical outlook.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold and silver remained range-bound this week, with the market waiting for the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting and policy statement.
Gold's first resistance zone is around $4,200. A sustained break above this area could allow a move toward $4,250-$4,300. If oil prices continue to rise or inflation expectations increase, gold could retest $4,100. A sustained break below that area could expose the market to $4,000.
Silver's key resistance is around $58-$59. A break above this level could open the way toward $60-$62. A sustained move below $57 would increase the risk of a decline toward $55-$56.
The main factors to watch next week include:
If the Fed holds rates and delivers a relatively dovish policy message, markets may reduce December hike expectations, supporting gold and silver. Conversely, a hawkish signal or indication of further tightening could place precious metals under pressure again.
Overall, gold remains in a range-bound phase, with $4,100 as the key support level. Silver's volatility remains high, but it needs to reclaim the $57-$58 area to improve its near-term structure.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently considering your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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