2026-08-14 11:28:25
|
1
0
Precious metals extended their rally this week, with both gold and silver moving higher after a surprisingly weak U.S. employment report reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Gold traded above the $4,400 level, while silver outperformed and pushed above $65.
The release of softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data also helped reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. However, stronger underlying producer-price pressures later in the week triggered some profit-taking and kept price action volatile.
Macro: Weak Labor Data, Softer CPI, and a Cautious Fed Outlook
The U.S. July employment report showed that nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, compared with market expectations for a moderate increase. Previous months’ job gains were also revised lower, reinforcing signs that the labor market is losing momentum.
Although the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, the decline was accompanied by a fall in labor-force participation to 61.4%. This suggests that the improvement in the unemployment rate may not necessarily reflect stronger labor-market conditions.
The July CPI report provided additional support for precious metals. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year on year, down from 3.5% in June and broadly in line with expectations. The softer inflation reading reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September.
Market pricing subsequently shifted toward a higher probability of a September rate hold, although the possibility of another rate hike has not been fully removed. Investors are likely to remain sensitive to future inflation data, Fed commentary and developments in Treasury yields.
Gold: Holding Above $4,400 After a Strong Breakout
Gold continued its advance this week after breaking away from the $4,000 base during the previous week. The weak employment report pushed Treasury yields lower and weighed on the U.S. dollar, triggering another wave of buying in gold.
Spot gold rose above $4,400 and reached its highest level in approximately two months. On August 10, spot gold was reported around $4,357, while December gold futures briefly touched approximately $4,421.
The next upside area to monitor is around $4,450-$4,500. If profit-taking emerges, $4,300 may provide initial support, followed by $4,200-$4,250. The broader structure remains constructive as long as gold holds above the former breakout region.
Silver: Outperforming Gold and Reclaiming $65
Silver extended its recovery more aggressively than gold this week. After regaining the $60 level, prices moved above $65 for the first time in several weeks, supported by lower yields, a softer dollar and improved risk appetite across the metals complex.
Silver futures opened around $65.46 on August 13, while spot silver was quoted near $65.20 during the session.
The $60-$62 area is now an important support zone. If silver remains above this range, the market may continue to test $65-$66, with $70 as a potential medium-term reference. However, a sharp move back below $60 would weaken the current recovery structure.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold maintains a positive short-term bias after holding above $4,400. A sustained break above this level could open the way toward $4,450-$4,500, while $4,300 is likely to provide initial support during a pullback.
Silver's momentum is currently stronger than gold's, but its rapid rise also increases the risk of short-term profit-taking. Holding above $60 remains important, while $65-$66 is the next resistance zone to watch.
The main catalysts in the coming week will include further comments from Federal Reserve officials, changes in September rate expectations, U.S. producer-price and employment data, movements in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and any new developments in geopolitical risks.
If the labor market continues to weaken while inflation remains contained, precious metals may retain their bullish momentum. However, stronger inflation signals or a renewed hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve could trigger further consolidation at elevated levels.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
简体中文
繁體中文
TradingView
MT5 Web
Spot Gold/Spot Silver
Accounts
Wallet
Promotions
Trading Tools
News Updates
Economic Calendar
Investment Academy
Beginner’s Guide
Anti-Fraud Guide
FAQs
Upway APP
Upway Desktop
CTOTrader
Upway HD
MetaTrader 4
About Upway
Company News
Affiliate Program
Contact Us
