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Investment demand fell, but OTC activity rose: reading the visible and broader gold market

2026-08-19 10:33:51 | 浏览 1

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The second quarter of 2026 produced an important divergence in gold-demand data. Reported investment demand declined sharply, while over-the-counter and other demand increased, leaving total gold demand broadly stable.

According to the World Gold Council, gold investment demand fell from 539.2 tonnes in Q1 to 262.2 tonnes in Q2, a quarterly decline of approximately 51%. At the same time, OTC and other demand increased from 243.7 tonnes to 327.1 tonnes, up approximately 34% quarter-on-quarter. Total Q2 gold demand remained around 1,268.9 tonnes, broadly unchanged year-on-year.

This creates an important analytical distinction: a decline in one visible investment channel does not automatically mean that overall gold-holding demand is declining at the same pace.


The key data points are:

  • Q2 total gold demand: approximately 1,268.9 tonnes;
  • Q1 investment demand: 539.2 tonnes;
  • Q2 investment demand: 262.2 tonnes;
  • Q1 OTC and other demand: 243.7 tonnes;
  • Q2 OTC and other demand: 327.1 tonnes.

OTC activity has a different structure from publicly listed investment channels, so the categories should not be treated as identical. However, together they show that gold demand is spread across multiple channels and that investor behaviour cannot be understood through a single flow measure.


This distinction is particularly relevant to physical gold buyers. Retail bars and coins are purchased according to product specifications, purity, certification, premiums, availability, storage and delivery terms. Public investment data may capture only one part of the overall market and may not fully represent every form of physical ownership.

For individual investors, several principles are useful:

  1. Look beyond one quarter.
    A fall in Q2 investment demand should be considered alongside first-half demand and other market channels.
  2. Do not treat one channel as the whole market.
    Listed products, physical bars and coins, and OTC activity reflect different types of participation.
  3. Consider the real product conditions.
    For physical gold, premiums, spreads, specifications, custody and delivery can materially affect total ownership costs.
  4. Define the purpose of ownership.
    If the objective is long-term allocation, product quality, holding arrangements and time horizon may matter more than one quarter's flow data.


For providers of physical gold solutions, this environment reinforces the importance of transparent, data-led education. Alongside price information and public investment figures, clients should be able to understand the differences between channels and the practical terms of custody, delivery and ownership.


The Q2 data do not simply say that the market is becoming stronger or weaker. They raise a more useful question:

Does a decline in visible investment demand represent a broad change in gold ownership, or only a shift between market channels?

Looking at investment demand, OTC activity, physical product conditions and personal objectives together can help investors make more informed decisions about physical gold.


Upway Global: Driving New Patterns in Gold Investment

Upway Global, a prominent brand under Upway Group, has been rooted in the market for over 16 years, holding Grade AA member status (No. 084) at the HKGX and serving as a core member of Bullion Group. As a key player in the precious metals investment sector, Upway Global strictly follows international purity and quality standards, earning the prestigious "Recognised Delivery Bar Refiner Certificate," ranking among Hong Kong's top refiners. The brand focuses on offering diverse electronic trading in precious metals, its outstanding market performance includes a single-day XAU turnover reaching USD 80.75 billion in 2025, with over 2.1 million active members and over 7.6 billion cumulative orders, maintaining the highest average monthly trading volume at the HKGX.

At the same time, Upway Global recognises that user experience is central to brand competitiveness. Our platform offers 24/7 multilingual customer support, with dedicated service specialists assisting clients around the clock. Standing side by side with investors in a rapidly changing market, Upway Global helps clients achieve steady asset growth through reliable and professional services.

Risk Disclosure

This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.