2026-08-21 10:29:24
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Precious metals remained firmly supported this week, with gold reaching above $4,500 and silver testing the $67 area before pulling back from the highs. Gold continued to benefit from safe-haven demand and long-term investor interest, while silver maintained stronger short-term momentum but also experienced larger intraday swings.
The release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes was the main event of the week. Although the minutes confirmed the 9-3 decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, they highlighted continuing differences among policymakers and left markets uncertain about the timing and direction of future policy moves.
Macro: FOMC Minutes Highlight Internal Differences
The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting minutes confirmed the previously announced 9-3 vote to hold interest rates steady. The minutes showed that policymakers continued to debate the balance between persistent inflation risks and signs of a slowing labor market.
The policy outlook remained complicated. Markets are still assessing whether the Fed will maintain its current stance, consider a future rate increase or eventually shift toward rate cuts. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar and precious metals.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.70% on Wednesday, after recently reaching a 20-month high near 4.75%. The decline in yields helped support gold and silver, particularly after the release of the FOMC minutes.
The market will now turn its attention to upcoming U.S. business-activity data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium next week. These events could provide further clues about the Fed's policy path.
Gold: Breaks Above $4,500 Before Profit-Taking
Gold extended last week's strong rally and moved above $4,500 for the first time in the current advance. Prices were supported by lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar during parts of the week, safe-haven demand and continued uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Gold was trading near $4,507 after the release of the FOMC minutes on August 19, representing an increase of approximately 4% from the day's opening level.
Gold's next resistance zone is likely to be around $4,550-$4,600. If prices continue to consolidate after the sharp rise, $4,450-$4,500 may provide initial support, followed by $4,400.
The rapid pace of the move means that short-term profit-taking remains possible. A renewed rise in Treasury yields or a more hawkish tone from Fed officials could temporarily limit further upside.
Silver: Strong Momentum, but Greater Volatility
Silver continued to outperform gold on a short-term basis. Prices moved above $65 and approached the $67 area before pulling back. The rally reflected stronger momentum across the precious-metals complex, improving risk appetite and expectations that lower yields could support both investment and industrial demand.
Silver was trading near $66.34 after the FOMC minutes, up approximately 4.7% from the day's opening level.
The $65 level has become an important short-term reference point. If silver holds above this level, prices may continue to test $67-$70. If the rally loses momentum, the $63-$65 area may provide initial support, while $60-$62 remains a deeper support zone.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold retains a positive short-term bias after breaking above $4,500, but the market may need to consolidate before attempting another sustained move higher. The first support zone is around $4,450-$4,500, while $4,400 remains an important technical level.
Silver's momentum remains stronger than gold's, but the risk of sharp pullbacks is also higher. Holding above $65 would keep the short-term structure constructive, while a sustained break above $67 could open the way toward $70.
The key catalysts next week will be Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole, U.S. preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data, Treasury-yield movements and changes in market expectations for future Fed policy.
If Fed officials acknowledge weakening employment conditions while maintaining confidence that inflation is manageable, precious metals may receive further support. However, a renewed hawkish policy message or another rise in yields could trigger profit-taking after this week's strong gains.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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