2026-10-09 10:21:30
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Precious metals rebounded from last week's sharp correction as softer U.S. employment data significantly reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreated from recent highs, providing relief for gold and silver.
Gold recovered from the $4,100 area toward $4,170-$4,200, while silver rebounded from below $60 to the $61-$62 region. However, markets remain cautious about a potential December hike and the prospect of higher rates for longer, limiting the upside for precious metals.
Macro: Soft Payrolls Cool October Hike Expectations
Markets continued to digest the impact of the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report. The data showed that employment increased by only 29,000, well below the consensus estimate of approximately 90,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and previous months' job gains were revised down by a combined 60,000.
The weak employment figures sharply reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an October hike fell from around 70% to approximately 16%-22%, while the odds of a December hike remained near 84%-87%.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting were released on October 7. They showed that although all 12 voting members supported the 25-basis-point rate hike in September, officials held differing views on inflation, employment and the future policy path. Some officials remained concerned about elevated inflation and supported further tightening, while others were more focused on labor-market cooling risks and favored patience.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury auctions and movements in crude oil prices also influenced market sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated from near 5.25% to approximately 4.7%-4.8%, providing support for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Overall, the market's focus shifted from "resilient growth supporting higher rates" to "weaker employment reducing near-term tightening pressure," although expectations for a December hike and higher rates for longer remain in place.
Gold: Rebounds from $4,100 toward $4,170-$4,200
Gold rebounded this week after testing the $4,100 area last week. Softer payrolls reduced October rate-hike expectations, while the dollar and yields declined, pushing prices higher from recent lows.
As of October 6, spot gold was trading around $4,175 per ounce, up more than $100 from last week's low.
Gold needs to reclaim $4,200 before attempting a recovery toward $4,250-$4,300. If employment data remain weak or safe-haven demand increases, prices could extend the rebound. However, rising December hike expectations or higher yields could limit the upside.
The recent rebound suggests that markets have begun to reassess expectations for further tightening, but the medium-term direction will still depend on real yields, the dollar and future Fed policy signals.
Silver: Rebounds from Below $60 toward $61-$62
Silver also rebounded this week, although it continued to underperform gold slightly. As the dollar and yields eased, silver recovered from below $60 to the $61-$62 area.
As of October 6, spot silver was trading around $61.47 per ounce, up approximately $1.5-$2 from last week's low.
If silver can reclaim $62, prices may recover toward $63-$65. A sustained break below $60 could expose the market to $58-$59.
The gold-silver ratio remains elevated, showing that investors currently prefer gold's safe-haven characteristics while remaining cautious about silver's industrial-demand and cyclical outlook.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold and silver rebounded this week on weaker employment data, but expectations for a December hike and higher rates for longer continue to limit the upside.
Gold's first resistance zone is around $4,200-$4,250. A sustained break above this area could allow a move toward $4,300. If employment data remain weak or safe-haven demand rises, gold could extend its rebound. However, a renewed rise in yields could send prices back toward the $4,100-$4,150 support zone.
Silver's key resistance is around $62-$63. A break above this level could open the way toward $65. A sustained move below $60 would increase the risk of a decline toward $58-$59.
The main factors to watch next week include:
If inflation expectations remain stable or decline, markets may further reduce rate-hike expectations, supporting gold and silver. Conversely, rising inflation expectations or hawkish Fed commentary could place precious metals under pressure again.
Overall, gold remains in a rebound phase from recent lows, with $4,100-$4,150 as the key support zone. Silver has shown greater rebound elasticity but needs to reclaim the $60-$62 area to improve its near-term structure.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently considering your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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