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Rate-Cut Expectations and Central-Bank Buying Lift Gold Back Above 4,380 USD

2025-12-22 11:13:32 | 浏览 430

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Macro Drivers: Easing Bets Push Real Yields Lower

On 22 December 2025, gold prices moved higher, supported by growing expectations of further monetary easing and persistent safe?haven demand. During Asian trading, spot gold briefly broke above 4,360 USD per ounce and was last seen around 4,382 USD, while front-month COMEX gold futures traded near 4,412 USD. Investors continue to price in additional Fed rate cuts, pushing real yields lower and weighing on the US dollar, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.


Flows: ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Institutional Interest

On the flows side, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, added more than 4 tons of gold in a single day in mid-December, taking total holdings back to around 1,050.83 tons and effectively reversing earlier outflows. Market strategists note that this shift from net redemptions to net creations suggests that long-term investors are increasingly comfortable maintaining or adding exposure at elevated price levels.


Official Sector: Central-Bank Buying Builds a Structural Floor

The official sector is also providing a solid underpinning. The latest data show that the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month as of end-November 2025, lifting total holdings to about 74.12 million ounces and raising golds share of reserves to roughly 8%, still below the global average. Analysts argue that ongoing de-dollarisation, reserve diversification and elevated geopolitical risk are likely to keep central-bank demand a key structural support for gold over the medium to long term.


Technical Picture: Sideways Consolidation Within a Larger Uptrend

From a technical perspective, renewed dip-buying has emerged above the 4,300 USD level, with near-term support located in the 4,3504,360 USD range and initial resistance seen around 4,4004,420 USD. As long as real yields continue to edge lower and there is no broad-based liquidation from central banks or ETFs, many analysts view the current consolidation near record territory as a sideways pause within a broader uptrend, where modest pullbacks are still treated as opportunities to accumulate rather than signs of a trend reversal.

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