2025-12-29 10:23:10
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Market Action: Gold Range-Trades Near
Record Highs, Silver Volatility Surges
On 29 December 2025 during Asian trading hours, spot gold changed hands around
4,537 USD per ounce, consolidating in a tight range after recently setting
fresh all-time highs, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war between
roughly 4,530 and 4,550 USD. Silver, by contrast, has seen far more dramatic
swings: prices pushed through the 83 USD per ounce mark to a new record before
reversing lower, highlighting growing rotation and divergence within
the precious-metals complex.
Macro Backdrop: 2026 Rate-Cut Bets and a
Softer Dollar
Futures markets now imply that the Federal Reserve could cut rates twice in
2026, with Fed funds futures pricing in a prolonged easing cycle rather than a
one-off adjustment. At the same time, mounting concern over the sustainability
of US fiscal deficits and sovereign debt has strengthened expectations of a
weaker US dollar over the medium term, encouraging investors to shift part of
their defensive and strategic allocations from dollar-denominated assets into
gold and other real assets.
Flow Dynamics: Gold ETF Holdings
Approach PandemicEra Peaks
Data from the World Gold Council and sell-side research show that, with the
exception of May, global gold ETFs have recorded net inflows every
month this year, pushing total holdings steadily higher. SPDR Gold Trust,
the world’s largest gold ETF, has increased its holdings by more than 20% year-to-date,
with several recent trading days seeing single-day inflows in the 3–4 ton
range—a sign that long-term institutional capital continues to build exposure
even at elevated price levels.
Official Sector: Reserve Reallocation
Provides a Structural “Hard Floor”
According to the latest World Gold Council report, global official gold
reserves rose by a net 53 tons in October 2025, up 36% from September and
marking the largest monthly net purchase this year; cumulative central-bank net
buying reached 254 tons in the first ten months alone. Analysts note that
rising concerns over Western sovereign risk and the growing use of financial
sanctions have prompted more central banks to treat gold as a key hedge against
credit and sanction risk, suggesting that official-sector allocations are
likely to rise steadily over the coming years and act as a structural
floor for prices.
Outlook: 4,686 USD in Sight, 5,000 USD
Seen as a Key Medium-Term Target
Several investment banks and precious-metals specialists now see 4,686 USD per
ounce as the next major upside technical target, with some forecasting that
gold could challenge the 5,000 USD level in the first half of 2026 if easing
expectations and robust central-bank/ETF demand remain in place. However, they
also warn that the speed of the recent rally, the extreme volatility in silver,
and signs of weakening physical demand in key markets such as India—where high
prices have pushed local gold into a rare discount—point to rising risks of
sharp corrections within the broader uptrend, making position sizing
and risk management increasingly critical for investors.
Upway Global: Driving New Patterns in Gold Investment
Upway Global, a prominent brand under Upway Group, has been rooted in the market for over 15 years, holding Grade AA member status (No. 084) at the HKGX and serving as a core member of Bullion Group. As a key player in the precious metals investment sector, Upway Global strictly follows international purity and quality standards, earning the prestigious “Recognised Delivery Bar Refiner Certificate,” ranking among Hong Kong’s top refiners. The brand focuses on offering diverse electronic trading in precious metals, Its outstanding market performance includes a single-day XAU turnover reaching USD 80.75 billion in 2025, with over 1.2 million active members and over 600 million cumulative orders, maintaining the highest average monthly trading volume at the HKGX.
At the same time, Upway Global recognises that user experience is central to brand competitiveness. Our platform offers 24/7 multilingual customer support, with dedicated service specialists assisting clients around the clock. Standing side by side with investors in a rapidly changing market, Upway Global helps clients achieve steady asset growth through reliable and professional services.
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