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Week 52 Gold Market Recap: Gold and Silver Smash Records as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Year-End Surge

2025-12-29 14:33:49 | 浏览 3069

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Spot gold sustained its robust year-end rally, oscillating within the $4,450–$4,530/oz range this week and touching a new record high of $4,530/oz. Multiple pullbacks to the $4,450 level found strong buying support, indicating stable high-level positioning; December gains neared 9%, with year-to-date appreciation exceeding 70%, firmly holding the ascending channels upper rail and marking one of the strongest annual performances since 1979, signaling entry into a "strong bullish market" phase. Spot silver delivered equally compelling gains, holding above $70/oz amid elevated levels, surging intraday to the $84 zone on December 29—its multi-year peak—with technical patterns mirroring golds high-level consolidation; the gold-silver ratio continued to contract, reflecting capital rotation from gold into the broader precious metals complex.

Fed Expectations and Policy Environment

Markets widely anticipate the Federal Reserve will press forward with its easing cycle in 2026, with the latest rate projections indicating multiple cuts over the coming year and a broad decline in long-end real yields, furnishing gold with sustained valuation uplift. Throughout the year, the Fed has shifted from "higher for longer" rhetoric toward emphasizing inflation moderation alongside a soft economic landing, bolstering confidence in a medium- to long-term dovish trajectory; precious metals benefit from their "non-yielding + currency depreciation hedge" attributes.

Central Bank Buying and Fund Flows Provide Support

Data from the World Gold Council and multiple institutions reveal 2025 global central bank gold purchases hit historic highs, with China, India, and select Middle Eastern nations steadily bolstering reserves, cementing golds "strategic reserve" role in sovereign asset allocation. On the ETF front, major gold funds transitioned from modest Q4 outflows to net inflows, with holdings stabilizing and rebounding to underscore long-term investors tolerance for elevated prices. Analysts note that central bank "base loading" alongside ETF and institutional reallocation flows renders golds advance more than sentiment-driven, underpinned by medium- to long-term fundamentals.

Macro and Risk Sentiment Convergence

Escalating global geopolitical tensions, rising trade frictions and tariff uncertainties, coupled with decelerating growth in select regions, have heightened haven and hedging demand, channeling funds from high-valuation risk assets into gold and silver as hard stores of value. Concurrently, year-end liquidity tightness and portfolio rebalancing have amplified trend-following flows in precious metals, propelling repeated highs.

2026 Outlook: Year-End Consolidation at Peaks, Long-Term Bull Intact

Most institutions project that amid sustained Fed easing expectations, persistent global central bank accumulation, and lingering geopolitical uncertainties, gold will challenge the $5,000/oz target in 2026, with silvers price center poised to rise further. Near-term, record highs may invite technical pullbacks or elevated consolidation, yet under receding real rates and official "floor buying," any dips represent staging opportunities for medium- to long-term precious metals positioning rather than trend reversal signals.

Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold Trading and Market Excellence

As one of the elite members of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No. 084) and a core member of the Bullion Group, Upwaycertification, cently awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter" certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.

Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 1.2 million active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 600 million, Upway Global continues to foster a trading ecosystem characterised by transparency, security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025 exceeded USD 597 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.