2025-12-30 09:53:28
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Year-End Dynamics: Profit-Taking and
Thin Liquidity, Not a Broken Story
On 30 December 2025, the key narrative in the gold market has shifted away from
price ticks to the behaviour behind the move. Monday’s sharp sell-off,
which saw gold tumble roughly 4–5%, is widely viewed by analysts as a technical
clean-up driven by year-end profit-taking after an exceptionally
strong rally, rather than a fundamental reassessment of gold’s role. With many
macro and CTA funds sitting on gains of around 60–70% for the year, locking in
profits into year-end, combined with seasonally thin liquidity, amplified stop-loss
triggers and margin calls, turning what would normally be an orderly pullback
into an outsized intraday swing.
Risk Parameters: Futures Margin and
Limit-Up/Down Bands Tightened
At the same time, important changes are taking place on the market-structure side.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange recently announced that, from the settlement of
30 December onward, daily price-limit bands for gold and silver futures would
be set at 15%, while margin requirements for both speculative and hedging
positions would be raised to 17% and 16%, respectively. The move is designed to
curb excessive leverage and volatility in short-term speculative trading,
without undermining the legitimate hedging and asset-allocation functions of
the futures market, thereby laying a more stable derivatives foundation for
long-term price discovery.
Central-Bank Reserves: Gold Tops US
Treasuries for the First Time in 30 Years
Perhaps the most consequential development is unfolding on central-bank balance
sheets. Recent data cited by international media show that, in the second
quarter of 2025, the total value of gold held by global central banks
exceeded the value of their US Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly
three decades. This milestone underscores a gradual shift in the global
reserve architecture from a single?pillar system dominated by the US dollar to
a “dual-anchor” model of dollar plus gold. Emerging-market central
banks have been the main drivers of this trend, viewing gold—free from
sovereign credit and sanction risk—as a more reliable reserve asset at a time
when the share of the dollar in global reserves continues to decline.
Big Picture: A Transition from “Watching
the Price” to “Watching the Allocation”
Over the course of this year, gold has outperformed most major asset classes,
with cumulative gains of around 50–70%, a move underpinned less by speculative
spikes and more by structural re-allocation across central
banks, ETFs and long-horizon institutional portfolios. Strategists argue that,
in an environment of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, questions over US
fiscal sustainability and ongoing de-dollarisation, the gold narrative is
likely to keep shifting from short-term price swings toward long-term
positioning and regulatory design. From this perspective, violent day-to-day
moves—up or down—are better understood as part of a broader, multi-year bull
cycle than as its conclusion.
Upway Global: At the Forefront of Gold
Trading and Market Excellence
As one of the elite members of the Hong
Kong Gold Exchange (HKGX) with AA operation status (Membership No.
084) and a core member of the Bullion Group, Upwaycertification, cently
awarded the prestigious "Authorised Good Delivery Bars Minter"
certification—the highest standard in refining and delivery of physical gold
bars, confirming its capability to produce gold bars that meet international
purity and quality standards. This recognition signifies Upway Global’s
commitment to upholding industry-leading professionalism and integrity while
reinforcing Hong Kong’s position as Asia’s global gold trading hub.
Demonstrating robust market strength, Upway
Global’s daily transaction volume recently surpassed USD 80 billion, setting a
record and underscoring its role as a market leader. With over 1.2 million
active traders and a cumulative order volume exceeding 600 million, Upway
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security, and efficiency. The company’s average monthly trading volume in 2025
exceeded USD 597 billion, making it the top performer on the HKGX platform.
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