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Gold Near Record Territory as Rate-Cut Bets and Institutional Concerns Shape a High-Level Trading Range

2026-01-15 10:07:02 | 浏览 44169

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International Gold: Holding Near Records in a Bullish Yet Volatile Setup

  • Around 15 January, spot gold continues to trade in the 4,620–4,640-dollar zone, just below fresh record levels near 4,640–4,650 dollars set earlier in the week, with 12-month gains approaching roughly 70–75%.
  • Technical commentary indicates that XAU/USD remains within a rising channel, with the current price hovering near 4,627 dollars and moving averages still pointing to a short- and medium-term bullish bias. Analysts expect a potential dip toward 4,580 dollars as a corrective test of support, followed by a renewed push toward 4,665–4,765 dollars, while a break below 4,505 dollars could open the way to deeper losses toward 4,455 dollars.

In short, gold is trading in a mature bull-market consolidation: the uptrend remains intact, but key support and resistance zones are becoming more important than headline price records.

Key Drivers: Fed Cuts, Safe-Haven Demand and Upgraded Forecasts

  • Softer-than-expected US inflation data has reinforced expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts later this year, putting downward pressure on the dollar and boosting non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • At the same time, lingering worries over the Federal Reserve’s institutional independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions — including renewed concerns around Iran — are sustaining safe-haven demand, with gold still viewed as a primary hedge against both political and systemic risk despite elevated prices.
  • On a multi-year horizon, several major institutions have raised their gold price assumptions, with some projecting average levels in the 4,700–5,000-dollar range from 2026 onward, arguing that even sizeable corrections are likely to occur within a broader structural bull market.

This backdrop helps explain why dips continue to attract buyers, and why gold is increasingly treated as a strategic allocation rather than just a tactical trade.

Silver and the Wider Precious Metals Complex

  • Silver has also rallied strongly alongside gold, with analysts highlighting its dual role as an industrial and precious metal and suggesting that the current environment favours a high-beta, higher-volatility version of the gold trade. Some longer-term scenarios even entertain the possibility of silver moving toward the 100-dollar area in an extreme bullish case.
  • Within the broader precious-metals universe — including ETFs and mining equities — rising metal prices have lifted the sector, but concerns are emerging that certain gold-linked equities now look expensive relative to fundamentals, prompting calls for more selective exposure based on balance-sheet strength, cost discipline and capital-return policies.

Upway Global: Driving New Patterns in Gold Investment

Upway Global, a prominent brand under Upway Group, has been rooted in the market for over 16 years, holding Grade AA member status (No. 084) at the HKGX and serving as a core member of Bullion Group. As a key player in the precious metals investment sector, Upway Global strictly follows international purity and quality standards, earning the prestigious “Recognised Delivery Bar Refiner Certificate,” ranking among Hong Kong’s top refiners. The brand focuses on offering diverse electronic trading in precious metals, its outstanding market performance includes a single-day XAU turnover reaching USD 80.75 billion in 2025, with over 2.1 million active members and over 7.6 billion cumulative orders, maintaining the highest average monthly trading volume at the HKGX.

At the same time, Upway Global recognises that user experience is central to brand competitiveness. Our platform offers 24/7 multilingual customer support, with dedicated service specialists assisting clients around the clock. Standing side by side with investors in a rapidly changing market, Upway Global helps clients achieve steady asset growth through reliable and professional services.